GloboTrends- International Trend analysis

BRIC #2 slows down; “India’s economy fared worse than expected in the first quarter, growing by 5.3% compared with the same period a year earlier. It was the slowest rate of growth in almost eight years, falling far short of the government’s target of 9%. Many blame political infighting (as well as a haughty attitude towards foreign investment) for the slowdown.

- The Economist, May 31 2012

BRIC #1 slows down: “Brazil’s central bank cut its main interest rate to 8.5%. The rate has come down by four percentage points over the past year as part of a series of official measures to try to fire up what used to be one of the world’s hottest economies. The cuts have reduced the value of the real by about 20%, which should help exports.

- The Economist, May 31st 2012

final quote from Martin Wolf: “If countries face year after weary year of debt deflation and depression, the euro risks becoming a detested symbol of impoverishment.

- A Fragile Europe Must Change Fast - Council on Foreign Relations

The eurozone must not turn the weaker economies of today into depressed regions, permanently supported by transfers, a policy that has blighted the south of Italy.” Martin Wolf

- A Fragile Europe Must Change Fast - Council on Foreign Relations

The trouble in Europe, by @MartinWolf: “assumption of debts by a central treasury or replacement of national by federal fiscal mechanisms support is out of the question. The budget of the EU is 1 per cent of gross domestic product. There is no will to make it bigger.

- A Fragile Europe Must Change Fast - Council on Foreign Relations

Trend: “The geography of supply chains will change” @theeconomist

- Manufacturing: The third industrial revolution | The Economist

Trends in emerging markets: @globaledge “Each year, there are several unique trends within the MPI rankings. However, one trend seems to be prevalent across several years—countries in Asia have been the overall highest rated countries among the field of 26 countries. This year the top four are again Asian countries: Singapore, Hong Kong, China, and South Korea. Large export numbers, a strong manufacturing base, and an emerging middle class have been the main drivers of growth in Asia. This year, Latin American countries showed strong improvement with four major countries moving up several positions. Much of thisimprovement in Latin America can be attributed to infrastructure growth, a declining poverty index, and commodity growth.” source: GlobalEdge

- GloboTrends: from Summit Global Education / emerging markets

To understand US politics: @theeconomist “the president is a facilitator of change rather than a director of it.

Mr Klein continues: “…Most every change the president wants to make is actually and ultimately a change that Congress has to make. The president has some influence over Congress, of course, but vastly less than we commonly assume. And that influence drops to nearly nothing when the president is facing an opposition Congress beholden to voters who don’t much like him anyway. Indeed, those voters might see it as a plus if Congress ignores the president’s agenda.”

- Congress and the president: Obama’s second term | The Economist

Trend: “Soaring food prices worldwide and a greatly increasing global population have given way to the growing value of farmland in many countries. In the United Kingdom agricultural land prices have increased substantially this past year and many land investments have doubled in value. The country of China has recognized the trend of growing farmland prices and over the past years has targeted more than 20 million hectares of land in Africa for investment hoping land prices there will rise like other places across the globe. Many countries have followed China’s lead as Africa currently has the cheapest arable land in the world…. Land has sold at such high values around the world that some people have even argued that farmland may be the next financial bubble similar to the housing market collapse. Despite this speculation, others claim that farmland will remain a valuable asset due to the simple fact that food production must increase 70 percent by 2050 to satisfy global population growth. A global trend for years has involved land-poor countries purchasing farmland abroad in order to protect themselves from food supply scarcity. If farmland values continue to rise, these increasing prices will have great effects on land investments between land-poor nations and developing countries rich with land.” source: GlobalEdge, Feb 2012

- GloboTrends: from Summit Global Education / underlying trends that are shaping our world today

Trend: “economies moving backwards”? see this interesting analysis from @theeconomist

(via Lost economic time: The Proust index | The Economist)

“There are nine codes relating to injuries caused by parrots, and three relating to burns from flaming water-skis.” @theeconomist

Trend: increased regulation

- United States’ economy: Over-regulated America | The Economist

Do you think it’s true?…”from Greece to Iceland, governments are acting as enforcers or even as collection agents on behalf of the financial sector — and Iceland stands as a dress rehearsal for this power grab.”.

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